Weekly Musing 8-23-15
Days until the 2015 election: 72.
Days until the 2016 election: 443.
Underestimating Ted Cruz? Don’t.
Ted Cruz is a man with a plan. The Republican presidential candidate, bete noire of his party’s establishment, has carefully calculated a path to becoming the right-wing standard-bearer.
That makes him the most underestimated candidate in the field.
Cruz is rising in some polls and attracting more attention after the Republican debates in Cleveland on Aug. 6. The chattering class focused more on how well John Kasich, Carly Fiorina, Marco Rubio or Ben Carson did in those encounters, along with the confounding staying power of Donald Trump.
But Cruz, whose political cunning equals his sharp intellect, may have laid the best foundation for advancing in this wide-open race. He touched all the conservative erogenous zones at the Cleveland forum and strategically refuses to say anything negative about Trump, the front-runner in early national polls.
75%: The most important number in American politics
So what is happening? One number may explain what is happening in both the Republican and Democratic primary races: 75 percent.
This number is stunning, frightening, and will likely lead to huge changes in the next few years.
Literally three out of four Americans, when asked the question by Gallup “is corruption widespread throughout the government in this country or not?” said they believe corruption is widespread.
Only 25 percent of the American people say governmental corruption is not widespread. By comparison, in the Gallup world poll, only 38 percent of Germans say there is widespread corruption in their government.
The Strange Death of the Center-Left
In 1935 George Dangerfield published “The Strange Death of Liberal England, 1910-1914,” a vivid account of how Britain’s center-left Liberal Party, dominant for a century, collapsed amid conflicts it could not resolve.
The Liberal Party had appeared impregnable. Its cabinet in 1910 included Herbert Asquith (in the midst of the longest consecutive prime ministership since the Duke of Liverpool’s and until Margaret Thatcher’s), and the future wartime leaders David Lloyd George and Winston Churchill. But after 1910 the party never won an election again.
What got me thinking about Dangerfield’s delightfully written book were political developments here and in Britain — the monster crowds flocking to hear Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders on the West Coast and the likelihood that the far-left Jeremy Corbyn will be elected next month to head Britain’s Labour Party.
The Sanders and Corbyn boomlets have things in common. Sanders has long styled himself a socialist and seeks income redistribution; Corbyn wants government ownership of railroads and coal mines. Both look with favor on 90 percent tax rates.
NEW Mobile App for Parties & Candidates
We launched it…finally a new mobile app to help parties and candidates keep in touch with their members.
Our apps are native meaning they use the full power of smart mobile devices to provide rich features such as video, navigation, customized alerts linked to specific content, events calendaring, conventions, ballot registration and voting, breaking news, donations, blogs, instant polls and surveys and more.
And they are fully customizable. So check out one or all of the first four live apps up this week. Just go to your app store on either an Apple, Android or Windows phone and search for:
Republican Liberty Caucus
Tea Party Nation
NYS Conservative Party
Lisa Posthumus Lyons
Follow the progress of Right Mobile and the various new parties and candidates that launch their own apps on Facebook at; https://www.facebook.com/rightmobileUS/
If any party or candidate is interested in getting an app of their own, please contact me at: email@example.com
Presidential Campaigns See Texting as a Clear Path to Voters
Even a presidential candidate’s most devoted supporters could be forgiven for trying to tune out the torrent of campaign emails, Twitter messages, Facebook posts, Instagrams and Snapchats from that steadily flood voters’ inboxes and social-media feeds in this digitized, pixelated, endlessly streaming election cycle.
But a text message is different.
A text message — despite its no-frills, retro essence — is something personal. Something invasive. Something almost guaranteed to be read.
So last month, when Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont staged what his aides called the most important night of his three-month-old campaign for the Democratic nomination — cramming 100,000 of his followers into house parties from coast to coast, to whip them into foot soldiers — he did not solicit email addresses or corral the attendees into a special Facebook group. Instead, his digital organizing director, Claire Sandberg, asked each participant to send a quick text establishing contact with the campaign.
THIS “ONE PERSON, ONE VOTE” SUPREME COURT CASE COULD DESTROY THE DEMOCRATS
The question is whether district size should be set to the people living there or the people voting there. Obviously districts should be set by voters. Instead they’re set by the total number of residents.
The Democrats have ineptly tried to scramble a response that relies heavily on repeating “One person, one vote”, but who would be voting, if not voters? The party of slavery seems to be going back to the 3/5ths compromise days when their political power depended on maximizing population and minimizing voters through slavery.
“Should the court agree with the two Texas voters who brought the case, its ruling would shift political power from cities to rural areas, a move that would benefit Republicans. … Counting all people amplifies the voting power of places with large numbers of residents who cannot vote legally, including immigrants who are here legally but are not citizens, illegal immigrants, children and prisoners. Those places tend to be urban and to vote Democratic. A ruling that districts must be based on equal numbers of voters would move political power away from cities, with their many immigrants and children, and toward older and more homogeneous rural areas.”
The left is screeching “voter suppression”, but how do you suppress non-citizen voters?
This won’t impact Congress, but it could potentially counteract the drift to corrupt urban power centers within states. And in some states that will be transformative.
New poll: Teachers have no idea how much their schools spend
Teachers have no idea how much money their local school districts spend per student, they just want more spending.
Teachers surveyed in the 2015 Education Next poll estimated that their local school district spends a little more than $7,000 per student. The actual amount? $12,325. The teachers were off by 72 percent. That’s certainly worthy of a failing grade on this test.
Following that question, teachers were asked to estimate average per pupil spending across the country. Their estimates dropped slightly, down to $6,783. The actual amount: $12,010. Wrong by 77 percent.
2016 Electoral Map: How Hispanic and Asian Voters Could Change The Electoral College
The map above shows what the 2016 presidential election results could look like based on the increase in the number of Hispanic and Asian voters who will be voting for the first time 2016.
The interactive version allows you to make some assumptions and see what the results would be. Some interesting findings include:
Assuming medium voter turnout and that Hispanics and Asians both vote for Democrats and Republicans in the same proportion that they did in 2012 (74% vs 26%) the Democrats would win the key swing states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin and the Republican would win the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina and Texas.
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